Orioles vs Mariners Expert Picks and Betting Tips - Tuesday June 16, 2026

+130O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-150

Brandon Young – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Young has relied on his secondary pitches 8.8% less often this year (47.4%) than he did last season (56.2%).
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Coby Mayo is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Seattle (#2-worst of the day).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Coby Mayo pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Logan Gilbert’s 2116-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 5th percentile out of all starters.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Cole Young – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
Cole Young is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher today) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.85 Units / 41% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+9.15 Units / 17% ROI)
Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+345/-510)
Pete Alonso has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+9.40 Units / 104% ROI)

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