Orioles vs Mariners Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Tuesday June 16, 2026

Baltimore Orioles

@

Seattle Mariners

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Brandon Young – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Young has relied on his secondary pitches 8.8% less often this year (47.4%) than he did last season (56.2%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Blaze Alexander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Blaze Alexander has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Logan Gilbert’s 2116-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 5th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Dominic Canzone – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Dominic Canzone has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (94% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher today) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.85 Units / 41% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+9.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+185/-245)
  Adley Rutschman has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.95 Units / 55% ROI)