Official Lineup for Yankees vs Blue Jays – 7/01/2025

New York Yankees

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the New York Yankees on July 1, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League East showdown. Both teams find themselves in strong positions this season, with the Yankees sitting at 48-36 and the Blue Jays at 46-38. The Yankees are enjoying a solid year, while the Blue Jays are just above average, making this matchup crucial for both clubs as they pursue postseason aspirations.

In their previous game on June 30, the Blue Jays edged the Yankees 5-4, which adds a layer of intrigue to today’s contest. Toronto will send Kevin Gausman to the mound, who recently pitched a complete game shutout, indicating a potential turnaround after a mixed season. Gausman’s current ERA of 4.21 suggests he is below average, but his last outing could signal a resurgence. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings today, allowing 3.1 earned runs on average, which poses a challenge against a potent Yankees offense that ranks 2nd in MLB for home runs.

On the flip side, New York counters with Max Fried, an elite left-handed pitcher with a remarkable 1.92 ERA. Fried’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate this year, as his xFIP of 3.10 is higher than his ERA, hinting at possible regression. Nevertheless, he has been effective, going 10-2 this season and projected to pitch 6.1 innings with just 2.3 earned runs allowed on average.

The Yankees offense is an imposing force, ranking 2nd in the league, with their best hitter boasting a .354 average and 30 home runs. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays offense ranks 12th overall but struggles with power, sitting 21st in home runs. The projections indicate that the Yankees are favored today, but with a talented pitcher like Gausman looking to build on his last performance and a Blue Jays bullpen ranked 6th in MLB, this game could be closer than expected.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  Max Fried was in good form in his previous game started and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Aaron Judge has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 25.6% seasonal rate to 31.3% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The New York Yankees have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jasson Dominguez, Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Giancarlo Stanton).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Kevin Gausman is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #5 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Andres Gimenez will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 55 games (+14.00 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games (+18.92 Units / 25% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+6.80 Units / 25% ROI)