Official Lineup for Yankees vs Blue Jays – 7/01/2025

New York Yankees

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Toronto Blue Jays

On July 1, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre in an exciting American League East matchup. The stakes are high as both teams are in the thick of the playoff race. Toronto enters this game with a record of 46-38, while the Yankees are slightly ahead at 48-36. In their previous encounter, the Yankees edged out the Blue Jays, highlighting the competitive nature of this series.

Toronto will send out Kevin Gausman, who has had an average season thus far with a 6-6 record and a 4.21 ERA. While Gausman has been able to strike out batters at a decent rate, allowing 3.1 earned runs per game is less than ideal. His high flyball percentage (38 FB%) could be a concern against a powerful Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB with 128 home runs this season.

On the mound for New York is Max Fried, who has been nothing short of spectacular this year. With a 10-2 record and an impressive 1.92 ERA, Fried ranks as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 3.11 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. Fried projects to allow 2.3 earned runs in 6.0 innings, which would be a significant advantage for the Yankees.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 12th overall but boast a stellar batting average, sitting at 5th in MLB. However, their home run production is concerning, ranking 20th. In contrast, the Yankees not only excel in home runs but also have the 2nd best overall offense.

With the Blue Jays’ bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, they may have an edge if the game is close late. However, the Yankees’ potent offense and Fried’s elite performance make them the favorites heading into this matchup, despite the odds showing a closer contest.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-165)
  Among all the teams in action today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Paul Goldschmidt has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (96% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The New York Yankees have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jasson Dominguez, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
  Kevin Gausman is an extreme flyball pitcher (36% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #5 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Addison Barger will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen projects as the 4th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 55 games (+14.00 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games (+18.92 Units / 25% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+120/-155)
  Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.95 Units / 29% ROI)