Official Lineup for Reds vs Pirates – 8/08/2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On August 8, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Cincinnati Reds at PNC Park for the second game in their series. The Pirates, currently sitting at 50-66, are enduring a tough season, while the Reds boast a record of 60-56, reflecting an above-average performance. In their most recent matchup, the Pirates secured a decisive 7-0 victory, a result that has certainly buoyed their spirits as they look to build momentum.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Mitch Keller for the Pirates and Chase Burns for the Reds. Keller has struggled this season with a 5-10 record and a 3.89 ERA, ranking him as the 173rd best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced metrics. However, he projects to pitch an average of 5.6 innings today, allowing 2.9 earned runs while striking out 5.1 batters. Conversely, Burns, ranked 23rd among starters, has had a rocky start with a 0-3 record and a troubling 6.04 ERA. Despite this, his 2.50 xFIP suggests he might be due for a turnaround, projecting to allow just 2.1 earned runs and strike out 6.2 batters in his average outing.

The Pirates’ offense has been lackluster, ranking 30th in MLB, which could spell trouble against Burns, especially given his high strikeout rate of 36.4%. The projections indicate the Pirates will struggle to score, with a low implied team total of 3.62 runs. Meanwhile, the Reds’ offense, ranked 19th, may find opportunities against Keller, who has been known to allow 6.0 hits and 1.5 walks per game.

As the game approaches, the betting markets reflect a close contest, with the Pirates at +105 and the Reds at -125. With both teams looking to capitalize on their recent performances, this matchup promises to be a pivotal moment in their respective seasons.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chase Burns has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 58.6% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jake Fraley has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 6.1% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Mitch Keller’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this year (93.3 mph) below where it was last year (94.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 84.5-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 79.2-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 87 games (+18.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 95 games (+23.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+175/-230)
  Tommy Pham has hit the Walks Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+6.75 Units / 96% ROI)