Official Lineup for Reds vs Pirates – 8/08/2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds on August 8, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their respective seasons. The Pirates, with a record of 50-66, are struggling this year, while the Reds sit at a more respectable 60-56, showcasing an above-average performance. In their previous matchup, the Reds edged out the Pirates, further solidifying their dominance in this series.

Mitch Keller is projected to take the mound for the Pirates, bringing a mixed bag of results this season. Although he has a solid ERA of 3.89, he has struggled with a 5-10 record and ranks as the 173rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating a disappointing year overall. Keller’s strikeout projections are average, but he also has concerning numbers in walks and hits allowed, which could spell trouble against a Reds lineup that has shown flashes of offensive capability.

On the other side, Chase Burns, who has had a rough start to his season with a 0-3 record and a troubling ERA of 6.04, is projected to pitch for Cincinnati. However, his xFIP of 2.50 suggests he may be due for better luck, and his high strikeout rate (36.4 K%) could exploit the Pirates’ high strikeout offense, which ranks 6th in MLB.

The Reds’ offense ranks 18th overall, with their best hitter recently showcasing impressive form, hitting .450 over the past week. In contrast, the Pirates rank dead last in both team batting average and home runs, making their offensive struggles painfully evident.

With the game total set at an average 8.0 runs and both teams’ moneyline at -110, this matchup is expected to be closely contested. Yet, given their recent performances, the Reds appear to have the edge, particularly with Keller’s inconsistencies and Burns’ potential for improvement.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chase Burns has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 58.6% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Austin Hays has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 6.8% rate last year to 12.1% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The 7.1% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds grades them out as the #28 squad in baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Mitch Keller’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this year (93.3 mph) below where it was last year (94.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 84.5-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 79.2-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under Total Bases
  Joey Bart pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.