Official Lineup for Red Sox vs Yankees – 6/08/2025

Boston Red Sox

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox in the third game of their series on June 8, 2025, following an exciting matchup yesterday where the Yankees fell 10-7. The Yankees are enjoying a strong season, holding a record of 39-24 and sitting comfortably in the American League East, while the Red Sox, with a 31-35 record, are struggling to find their footing.

On the mound, the Yankees are set to start Carlos Rodon, who has been impressive this season. Rodon boasts an 8-3 record with an excellent ERA of 2.49, and his advanced stats suggest that he may have been a bit fortunate this season. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, with an average of 7.2 strikeouts per outing—an impressive feat against a Red Sox lineup that has the 2nd most strikeouts in MLB. Rodon’s high strikeout rate gives him a favorable matchup against Boston’s offense.

Hunter Dobbins will take the mound for the Red Sox. Despite being a right-handed pitcher with a 2-1 record, his ERA stands at 4.06, indicating he’s had his struggles this season. Dobbins projects to pitch only 4.4 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out just 3.6 batters, which could make things difficult against a Yankees lineup that ranks as the 1st best in MLB, especially in home runs.

With the Yankees’ offense firing on all cylinders and their strong bullpen ranked 4th in MLB, they enter this game as significant favorites with a moneyline of -245. Boston’s offense, although ranked 5th overall, may not be able to keep pace against Rodon and the Yankees’ potent lineup. This matchup favors New York significantly, making them a team to watch as they aim to bounce back from last night’s loss.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Hunter Dobbins – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Hunter Dobbins has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -10.8 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under Hits
  Trevor Story is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under Total Bases
  Trevor Story hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Carlos Rodon’s four-seamer utilization has decreased by 8.2% from last season to this one (49.4% to 41.2%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under Total Bases
  Ben Rice has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.9-mph average to last season’s 90-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected batting order today (.335 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .347 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under Game Total
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+9.07 Units / 15% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.55 Units / 43% ROI)