Tampa Bay Rays
Washington Nationals
(-110/-110)+120
The Washington Nationals will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays on August 30, 2025, in the second game of their interleague series at Nationals Park. After a tough loss yesterday, the Nationals, who have struggled considerably this season with a 53-81 record, are looking to regain momentum. Meanwhile, the Rays sit at 65-69, not quite contending but still holding their ground with an average season.
In this matchup, the Nationals are projected to start Jake Irvin, who has had a challenging year, posting an 8-9 record and a 5.40 ERA this season. Although Irvin has been unlucky with a 4.83 xFIP, his tendency to allow 5.9 hits and 1.4 walks per game signifies potential troubles against a well-rounded Rays offense. The Nationals rank as the 24th best offense in MLB and struggle with power, sitting at 28th in home runs, making it tough for them to capitalize on any mistakes.
Ryan Pepiot, slated to pitch for the Rays, boasts a solid season with a 3.82 ERA and a 9-10 record. While his FIP suggests some regression may be in store, he performs well against a Nationals lineup that has limited power. Pepiot’s high flyball percentage might not be an issue today, given Washington’s struggles to translate opportunities into homers.
The projections favor the Rays significantly, with an implied team total of 4.89 runs compared to the Nationals’ 4.11. After a weak outing by the Nationals’ offense yesterday, facing an above-average arm like Pepiot could pose a daunting challenge. With these factors in play, bettors might find value in leaning towards the Rays in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)Recording 17 outs per GS this year on average, Ryan Pepiot places him the 78th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Bob Seymour – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Robert Seymour has big-time HR ability (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (29.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jake Irvin struggles to strike batters out (12th percentile K%) — great news for Seymour.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Jake Irvin’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (46.9% vs. 41.7% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)James Wood has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 99.7-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 93.5-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brady House, Riley Adams, James Wood).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 47 games at home (+15.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 109 games (+13.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-150)Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.75 Units / 38% ROI)