Official Lineup for D-Backs vs Pirates – 7/25/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On July 25, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at PNC Park in the first game of their series. The Pirates, currently sitting at 42-61, have had a rough season and are not competing for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are slightly better at 50-53, marking them as an average team. Both teams are coming off contrasting performances: the Pirates won their last game 6-1 against the Chicago White Sox, while the Diamondbacks lost 4-3 to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Pittsburgh will send Michael Burrows to the mound, who has had a challenging season with a 1-3 record and an ERA of 4.70. Although Burrows has shown flashes of potential, his projections indicate he could struggle again today, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs over 4.5 innings. The Pirates’ offense ranks 30th in MLB, which is particularly concerning against a solid Diamondbacks lineup. Arizona boasts the 2nd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 5th best ranking in home runs.

The Diamondbacks will counter with Ryne Nelson, who has been more effective this season with a 6-2 record and a solid ERA of 3.52. However, projections suggest he may also face challenges today, particularly in hits allowed. The Pirates do have an average bullpen, ranked 13th, but against a potent offense like Arizona’s, they will need to step up significantly.

Betting markets currently have both teams at -110, indicating a close matchup, but with the Pirates’ struggles and the Diamondbacks’ offensive prowess, this game could tilt in favor of Arizona if Burrows falters. The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a potentially high-scoring affair.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ryne Nelson is expected to average a combined total of 5.4 strikeouts and walks in today’s matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Adrian Del Castillo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Adrian Del Castillo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Michael Burrows – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Mike Burrows will be at an advantage being matched up with 6 batters in the projected lineup who hit from the other side in today’s matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Andrew McCutchen has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.7-mph average to last year’s 93-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 82 games (+17.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 89 games (+14.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jose Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-160/+125)
  Jose Herrera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 65% ROI)