Official Lineup for Cubs vs Cardinals – 8/09/2025

Chicago Cubs

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St. Louis Cardinals

On August 9, 2025, Busch Stadium will host an intriguing National League Central matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs. The Cardinals enter the game with a record of 59-58, showcasing an average season thus far, while the Cubs boast a solid 66-49 record, reflecting their strong performance this year. This game is particularly significant as it is the second in a series between the two clubs.

In their most recent game, the Cardinals experienced a setback, losing to the Cubs, which puts added pressure on them to respond at home. The Cardinals are projected to start Andre Pallante, a right-handed pitcher with a Win/Loss record of 6-8 and an ERA of 4.57. While Pallante has been deemed a low-strikeout pitcher, he faces a Cubs offense that ranks as the 5th best in MLB, making this matchup particularly challenging. However, Pallante’s 3.88 xFIP suggests he has been unfortunate this season and could outperform expectations.

On the other side of the mound, the Cubs will counter with Colin Rea, who has a record of 8-5 and an above-average ERA of 4.23. Yet, the projections indicate that Rea has benefitted from some good luck this season, including a higher xERA of 4.98. Both pitchers project to allow around 3 earned runs, but Pallante’s high groundball rate could neutralize the Cubs’ power-hitting capabilities.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 20th in MLB, struggling with power and consistency, while the Cubs are among the elite, ranked 5th overall. Betting markets reflect a competitive atmosphere, with both teams sitting at a -110 moneyline. With the Game Total sitting at 8.5 runs, this contest promises to be closely contested, and the Cardinals may have an edge at home as they aim to bounce back.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-best among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be wise to expect negative regression for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Andre Pallante will wring up 16.5 outs in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Ivan Herrera has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.2-mph to 96.9-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 77 games (+8.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 64 of their last 113 games (+6.70 Units / 5% ROI)
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Ivan Herrera has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)