Odds and Betting Trends for Twins vs Braves – 4/18/25

Minnesota Twins

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will host the Minnesota Twins on April 18, 2025, in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Braves sitting at 5-13 and the Twins at 7-12. The Braves have had a particularly tough stretch, losing their last game against the New York Mets on April 16 by a score of 3-1. In contrast, the Twins managed to secure a win against the Cleveland Guardians, edging them 4-3 in their previous outing.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start Bryce Elder, who has been less than stellar this season with a 0-1 record and an alarming ERA of 7.20. Though Elder’s xFIP of 3.50 suggests he may be due for better luck, his recent performances indicate a need for improvement. His average projection includes allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out just 4.7 batters, which could be problematic against a high-strikeout Braves offense ranked 6th in MLB.

Chris Paddack will take the ball for the Twins, carrying a 0-2 record and a 9.49 ERA. However, Paddack’s projections hint at a more favorable outing today, as he is expected to allow 2.9 earned runs over 5.1 innings. Notably, both pitchers face offenses that have struggled, with the Braves ranked 20th offensively and the Twins at 27th.

Despite the Braves being favored with a moneyline of -145, their underwhelming offensive performance and Elder’s shaky start may leave room for the Twins to capitalize and pull off an upset. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, expect a competitive matchup as these two teams look to turn their seasons around.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Chris Paddack is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #25 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Byron Buxton generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryce Elder.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Minnesota Twins have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  With a 5.09 FIP since the start of last season (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that focuses on the aspects of pitching most within the pitcher’s control), Bryce Elder falls in the 21st percentile.
  Explain: ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher’s deserved runs allowed.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Michael Harris II is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves batters jointly rank 2nd- in Major League Baseball for power since the start of last season when judging by their 10.3% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)
  Carlos Correa has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)