Odds and Betting Trends for D-Backs vs Mets – 4/30/25

Arizona Diamondbacks

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New York Mets

As the Arizona Diamondbacks visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets on April 30, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum from their recent performances. In their last outing, the Mets showcased their strength with an impressive 8-3 victory over the D-Backs, and they aim to continue that trend in this critical matchup.

Currently, the Mets reside at 21-9, bolstered by an offense that ranks as the 8th best in MLB, while the Diamondbacks sit at 15-14, boasting a top-tier 4th best offense. Despite the D-Backs’ reputation for power, their projected starting pitcher, Corbin Burnes, has been struggling with a 4.05 ERA and a 0-1 record this season, although he pitched well in his last start with only one earned run allowed over five innings. In contrast, the Mets’ Brandon Waddell, who ranks 268th among MLB starters, is projected to allow 2.4 earned runs over 4.7 innings, which could be a recipe for a high-scoring affair.

The Mets’ best hitter has been on a roll, showing good form with a .346 batting average and 1.126 OPS this season, and he has been particularly effective lately, recording a .333 average and 1.024 OPS over the past week. With the D-Backs’ top hitter also performing well, this game promises to be an offensive showcase.

While the Mets’ bullpen has struggled and is ranked 29th, the D-Backs’ bullpen stands at a more respectable 10th. This disparity could play a critical role in the game’s outcome, especially if both starters are unable to go deep into the game. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the betting markets see this as a close contest, yet the Mets may have the edge, especially considering their recent performance against Arizona.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Corbin Burnes has utilized his cut-fastball 8.9% more often this year (53.9%) than he did last year (45%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Bats such as Eugenio Suarez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brandon Waddell who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Pete Alonso has made big gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 13.2% rate last season to 19.4% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The 3rd-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 14 games at home (+11.10 Units / 48% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 23 games (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Josh Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+15.40 Units / 257% ROI)