Nationals vs Yankees Game Time – 8/25/2025

Washington Nationals

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Washington Nationals on August 25, 2025, at Yankee Stadium, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Yankees hold a 70-60 record, showcasing an above-average season, while the Nationals languish at 53-77, marking a disappointing year. This Interleague matchup is the first in a series between these two clubs, adding a layer of intrigue as they clash.

In their last outing, the Yankees continued their strong run, with their best hitter contributing significantly in the past week, recording four home runs and a .375 batting average. This offensive firepower is critical as they rank 1st in MLB for team home runs this season, which plays into the strengths of their lineup. Meanwhile, the Nationals have struggled offensively, ranking 24th in MLB. Their best hitter has also performed well, but the team’s overall production has been lackluster, particularly in the power department, where they are 28th in home runs.

On the mound, Cam Schlitter is projected to start for the Yankees. Despite a modest 1-2 record this season, his solid 3.22 ERA suggests he has been effective, though advanced metrics indicate he may be due for a regression. Schlitter’s tendency to walk batters could be mitigated by the Nationals’ low-walk offense. Brad Lord takes the mound for the Nationals. With a 4-6 record and a 3.46 ERA, he too has been lucky this season, as indicated by his higher xERA.

Given the Yankees’ strong offensive capabilities and the projections favoring their pitching, they are positioned as significant favorites in this matchup. The Yankees’ implied team total of 5.39 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize against a struggling Nationals squad.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+170)
  Bradley Lord is an extreme groundball pitcher (49% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #9 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Jacob Young has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .230 mark is deflated compared to his .264 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Paul DeJong, Riley Adams, James Wood).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Cameron Schlittler’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (64.3% this year) is likely weakening his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Ryan McMahon has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+8.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 59 of their last 104 games (+10.12 Units / 8% ROI)
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Josh Bell has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 25 away games (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)