Mets vs Rockies Game Highlights – Wednesday, August 7, 2024

New York Mets

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the New York Mets on August 7, 2024, the stakes are clear for both teams. The Rockies sit at 42-72 this season, struggling with one of the worst records in MLB, while the Mets hold a respectable 59-54, marking them as a competitive force in the National League. After yesterday’s matchup, where the Rockies managed an impressive 6-3 victory over the Mets, they’ll look to build momentum against a team they’ve just bested.

Ryan Feltner is projected to take the mound for the Rockies, and despite his dismal 1-10 record this year, he has shown signs of potential with a 4.16 xFIP, indicating that his performance may improve. However, his ability to go deep into games is questionable, as he averages just 4.7 innings per start and tends to allow 3.3 earned runs. On the other hand, Paul Blackburn of the Mets, who has a solid 5-2 record and a respectable 4.11 ERA, is not without his weaknesses. He faces a Rockies lineup that, while ranking 17th in overall offense, has shown flashes of power with a 10th ranking in home runs.

Interestingly, the projections paint a slightly different picture than the betting odds suggest. While the Rockies remain underdogs with a +135 moneyline, the leading MLB projection system predicts their chances to be more favorable at 47%. This discrepancy highlights the potential value in betting on the Rockies, especially given their recent success and the Mets’ struggles against high-strikeout offenses. With the game total set at a high 11.0 runs, fans can expect an exciting matchup in Denver.

New York Mets Insights

• Paul Blackburn – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)
  Paul Blackburn has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ben Gamel – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  The Colorado Rockies don’t have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Ben Gamel is certain to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the whole game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen projects as the 8th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Given the 0.61 deviation between Ryan Feltner’s 4.97 ERA and his 4.36 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in baseball this year and ought to see better results in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  As it relates to his home runs, Michael Toglia has experienced some positive variance this year. His 44.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 32.3.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the Colorado Rockies will tally 5.9 runs on average in this matchup: the 2nd-most of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+130)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 42 games at home (+6.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 6.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 63 of their last 107 games (+11.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-115/-115)
  Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)