Mets vs Braves Injury Report – Thursday, June 19, 2025

New York Mets

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets on June 19, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League East matchup. Both teams head into this contest with fresh momentum; the Braves triumphed 5-0 against the Mets yesterday, a dominant performance that showcased their pitching prowess. Meanwhile, the Mets will look to bounce back after suffering a disappointing defeat against their rivals.

Currently, the Braves sit at 33-39, struggling to find consistency this season, while the Mets are boasting a strong record of 45-29, making them one of the top teams in the league. Atlanta’s Spencer Strider, ranked 19th among starting pitchers according to the leading MLB projection system, is looking to shake off a rough start to the year, with a 1-5 record and a 4.35 ERA. However, his advanced stats suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, with a 3.49 SIERA indicating he could improve moving forward.

On the other side, New York’s Clay Holmes offers a solid counter, standing at 43rd among starting pitchers with an impressive 2.87 ERA and a 7-3 record. Yet, projections highlight that he may have benefitted from some good fortune this year, indicating potential regression.

Offensively, the Braves rank 16th in the MLB, which is average, while the Mets boast the 5th best offense, highlighted by their ability to hit home runs. Strider’s tendency to generate fly balls (45 FB%) may work to the Mets’ advantage, especially given their power-hitting capabilities, with 93 home runs on the season.

As for betting, the Braves have a favorable moneyline at -135, suggesting that sportsbooks believe in their chances of continuing their winning momentum against the Mets tonight. With both teams looking to establish dominance in this series, expect an engaging showdown at Truist Park.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  With a 1.2 disparity between Clay Holmes’s 2.87 ERA and his 4.07 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the game this year and figures to see negative regression going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Pete Alonso has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 20.6% seasonal rate to 31.3% in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Spencer Strider’s 94.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 77th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Matt Olson is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 53 games (+8.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 66 games (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+7.00 Units / 21% ROI)