Match Preview: Phillies vs Brewers Game Forecast – Thursday, September 4, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies face off on September 4, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup between two of the top teams in the National League. Currently, the Brewers sit at 86-54, while the Phillies are not far behind at 80-59. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, making this game critical for playoff positioning as the race heats up.

In their last encounter, the Brewers claimed victory with a solid 6-3 win, putting pressure on the Phillies to respond. For this game, Milwaukee is projected to start Freddy Peralta, who is having a standout season with a 16-5 record and an impressive 2.58 ERA. The projections indicate that he will pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing around 2.2 earned runs. Given his recent performance, where he threw 6 innings without giving up any earned runs, Peralta is in a prime position to build on that momentum.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Ranger Suarez, who has been effective but with some inconsistency evident in his past start, where he allowed 10 hits but limited the damage to just 1 earned run. Suarez’s ERA stands at 3.02, suggesting he has been solid, yet his projection for today includes allowing 2.5 earned runs over an average of 5.7 innings pitched.

While the Brewers boast a powerful offense ranked 9th overall and 2nd in batting average, the Phillies are no slouches either, sitting 6th in overall offense and 3rd in batting average. With both bullpens ranking in the middle of the pack—Milwaukee at 15th and Philadelphia at 5th—the game may ultimately hinge on how both starters perform.

As the betting lines suggest a close contest with a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, sports bettors will want to keep an eye on how Peralta’s recent success contrasts with Suarez’s recent struggles. Adjusting for the Brewers’ offensive firepower, this matchup could tilt in Milwaukee’s favor, making them an appealing option for bettors looking for value based on current form and projections.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Ranger Suarez’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this year (89.5 mph) below where it was last year (90.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Max Kepler has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .294 figure is quite a bit lower than his .336 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Freddy Peralta has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 4.2 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Isaac Collins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Isaac Collins has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 70 of their last 134 games (+31.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 102 games (+18.56 Units / 15% ROI)
• Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Caleb Durbin has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.65 Units / 59% ROI)