Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
(-115/-105)-240
The Atlanta Braves will host the Miami Marlins on April 4, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. The Braves are struggling significantly this season with a dismal 0-7 record, while the Marlins have shown a better performance at 4-3. With both teams seeking to build momentum, this matchup carries weight as the Braves look to turn their fortunes around.
In their last game, the Braves faced a tough loss, continuing their streak of struggles. They will send Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound, who is currently ranked as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Schwellenbach boasts an impressive 0.00 ERA this season, though his 3.64 xFIP suggests that he may have been a bit fortunate thus far. He projects to pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs, which is elite. However, he also has a concerning projection of 5.0 hits and 1.0 walks allowed, indicating potential vulnerabilities.
On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Max Meyer, a right-handed pitcher who has a solid 1.59 ERA this season but is considered below average overall. Meyer has a high strikeout rate of 30.4% and will face a Braves offense that ranks 4th in MLB in strikeouts. This matchup could favor Meyer, as he excels in controlling walks, going up against a Braves lineup that has struggled to make consistent contact.
The Braves’ offense ranks a lowly 59th in MLB, reflecting their difficulties at the plate, while the Marlins sit at 25th. Despite the Braves being favored with a moneyline of -225 and an implied team total of 4.47 runs, their recent form raises questions about their ability to capitalize on this advantage. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, bettors will need to consider the pitching matchup carefully as they assess potential outcomes for this contest.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Given that flyball pitchers have a notable advantage over flyball batters, Spencer Schwellenbach and his 44.4% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in this game matching up with 3 opposing FB batters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Extreme flyball batters like Ozzie Albies tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Meyer.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 138 games (+31.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)Drake Baldwin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.55 Units / 95% ROI)