Live Updates on Rockies vs Nationals – 6/17/25

Colorado Rockies

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals host the Colorado Rockies on June 17, 2025, in a matchup that sees two struggling teams facing off. The Nationals currently sit with a record of 30-42, while the Rockies are languishing at 15-57. Both teams are far from their best, and the Rockies recently secured a win against the Nationals in yesterday’s game, taking it 6-4.

Mike Soroka is projected to take the mound for the Nationals. Despite a subpar ERA of 5.14, Soroka ranks as the 67th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, indicating he’s above average despite the rough season. His last outing on June 12 was uneventful, as he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings. He’ll be looking to improve, especially against a Rockies lineup that has been one of the worst in the league, ranking 28th in batting average and home runs.

On the other side, Antonio Senzatela will start for the Rockies. With a dismal 1-10 record and an ERA of 7.23, Senzatela has struggled significantly this season. His last performance was particularly troubling, where he allowed 7 earned runs in just 4 innings. The projections suggest he will allow 2.9 earned runs today, which is average for a pitcher of his caliber.

The Nationals offense ranks 22nd in MLB, but they do have a slight edge with their best hitter recently performing well, boasting a .407 batting average over the last week. With the Nationals favored at -185, there’s a good chance they could turn the tide against a Rockies team that continues to falter. The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, which reflects the difficulties both teams have faced offensively.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Antonio Senzatela’s fastball spin rate of 2218 rpm is in the 22nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Michael Toglia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .304 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .323 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mike Soroka – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Soroka is expected to average a total of 6.1 strikeouts today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Nathaniel Lowe will probably have an edge against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Washington’s 93.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #4 team in the game this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.07 Units / 18% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games (+9.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Hunter Goodman has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.85 Units / 76% ROI)