Live Updates on Orioles vs Braves – 7/04/25

Baltimore Orioles

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on July 4, 2025, at Truist Park, both teams find themselves struggling this season. The Braves hold a record of 39-47, while the Orioles are slightly behind at 37-49. This Interleague matchup is significant as both teams seek to improve their standings, but neither is in contention for a playoff spot.

In their last outings, the Braves suffered a disappointing 5-1 loss, and the Orioles were shut out 6-0. This game marks the first in a series between these two struggling teams. The Braves are projected to start Spencer Strider, who has been rated as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Despite his 3-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.86, Strider’s high walk rate (9.9 BB%) could be a concern against an Orioles offense that ranks 4th in the fewest walks drawn.

On the other side, the Orioles will send out Charlie Morton, who is having a rough season with a 4-7 record and a troubling ERA of 5.63. Morton has struggled with consistency this year, and although his xFIP suggests he might have been unlucky, he remains a below-average option for Baltimore. The projections indicate that he is likely to pitch only 4.5 innings today, which is not ideal for the Orioles.

With the Braves’ offense ranking 20th in MLB, they have their work cut out for them. However, they are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -180, suggesting a strong belief in their chances to secure a victory. The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, and the Braves are projected to score 4.82 runs, indicating potential for a higher-scoring affair. If Strider can harness his strikeout ability while minimizing walks, Atlanta might finally turn the tide in their favor.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)
  Charlie Morton has been unlucky this year, compiling a 5.63 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.63 — a 1 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme flyball batters like Cedric Mullins are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Spencer Strider.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  In today’s game, Gary Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.1% rate (95th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Among all starters, Spencer Strider’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph ranks in the 79th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Ozzie Albies has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-185)
  The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+11.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 44 away games (+13.53 Units / 28% ROI)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+170/-225)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.05 Units / 34% ROI)