Minnesota Twins
Boston Red Sox
(-120/+100)-195
As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on May 4, 2025, at Fenway Park, the stakes are heightened following a tightly contested matchup the day before, where the Twins edged out the Red Sox with a 4-3 victory. This game marks the third in the series, with Boston looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss, while Minnesota aims to build on their rare success.
In terms of standings, Boston sits at 18-17, reflecting an average season thus far. Meanwhile, Minnesota struggles with a 14-20 record, placing them firmly in the lower tier of the league. The Red Sox offense ranks as the 6th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to produce runs, while the Twins find themselves at 21st, struggling significantly in both batting average and home runs.
The pitching matchup features Garrett Crochet for Boston, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 10th in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasting an impressive 2.05 ERA this season. Despite his high strikeout potential (projected 7.2 strikeouts today), Crochet’s average of 5.0 hits allowed raises some concerns. On the other hand, Minnesota counters with Chris Paddack, a right-handed pitcher who has yet to secure a win this season, carrying a troubling 5.60 ERA. Paddack’s low strikeout rate could spell trouble against a Red Sox lineup that thrives on high strikeout pitchers.
The projections favor Boston, with an implied team total of 4.89 runs compared to Minnesota’s 3.61. As the Red Sox look to correct their recent missteps, expect them to leverage their strong offense against a struggling pitcher in Paddack. With the home crowd behind them, Boston will aim to reclaim momentum in this series.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Chris Paddack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Considering that groundball pitchers have a significant advantage over groundball bats, Chris Paddack and his 33.8% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position today facing 2 opposing GB bats.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Garrett Crochet has used his four-seamer 7.8% less often this season (45.9%) than he did last year (53.7%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Rafael Devers is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- The Boston Red Sox (24.4% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-most strikeout-heavy batting order of the day.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-235)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 33 games (+7.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)Byron Buxton has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+6.80 Units / 28% ROI)