Live Updates for Twins vs Red Sox – 5/04/2025

Minnesota Twins

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on May 4, 2025, at Fenway Park, both teams are looking to shift their fortunes. The Red Sox, with an 18-17 record, find themselves in the middle of a competitive American League, while the Twins sit at a disappointing 14-20. The stakes are heightened as this matchup marks the third game in their series, following yesterday’s contest where the Red Sox emerged victorious.

Garrett Crochet, the projected starter for Boston, enters the game with a strong 3-2 record and a fantastic ERA of 2.05, making him the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to Power Rankings. However, his 3.24 xFIP suggests he has benefited from a bit of luck, which could indicate a regression in his future performance. Crochet is expected to deliver 5.9 innings today, allowing around 2.2 earned runs while striking out an impressive 7.1 batters.

In contrast, Chris Paddack is set to take the mound for Minnesota. With a troubling 0-3 record and an ERA of 5.60, Paddack’s struggles are evident. His numbers indicate a below-average season, and projections expect him to pitch 5.2 innings, giving up 2.9 earned runs and striking out just 4.5 batters. Paddack’s high walk rate (11.4%) may play into the Red Sox’s hands, as they rank 3rd in MLB in drawing walks.

Offensively, the Red Sox boast the 6th best batting lineup in MLB, and their power numbers aren’t too shabby either, with a 9th place ranking in home runs. Meanwhile, the Twins’ offense ranks a stark 22nd overall. Given the Red Sox’s advantages on both the mound and at bat, they enter this contest as clear favorites, currently holding a moneyline of -220, and an implied team total of 5.02 runs, compared to the Twins’ low 3.48 runs. With Crochet’s elite pitching and a potent Boston offense, the Red Sox aim to capitalize on their favorable matchup and secure another victory.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+190)
  Considering that groundball pitchers have a significant advantage over groundball bats, Chris Paddack and his 33.8% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position today facing 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under Hits
  Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under Total Bases
  Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Garrett Crochet has used his four-seamer 7.8% less often this season (45.9%) than he did last year (53.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Rafael Devers is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Romy Gonzalez, Trevor Story, Carlos Narvaez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts