Live Updates for Tigers vs Astros – 4/30/2025

Detroit Tigers

@

Houston Astros

On April 30, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Detroit Tigers for the third game in their series at Minute Maid Park. The Astros sit at 16-13 this season and are striving to improve their standing in a competitive American League, while the Tigers, with a record of 18-12, are aiming to solidify their position as a strong contender. Notably, the Tigers’ Jackson Jobe is coming off a recent complete game where he showcased his skills.

This matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Hayden Wesneski for the Astros and the struggling Jackson Jobe for the Tigers. Wesneski, ranked as the 96th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had an uneven start to the season, with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 3.86, suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky based on his 3.35 SIERA. However, he projects to allow 2.4 earned runs and strike out 5.7 batters today, hinting that he could be poised for a solid outing.

On the other hand, Jackson Jobe has been extremely effective with a 2-0 record and an impressive 2.70 ERA this season. Yet, advanced metrics indicate he’s been fortunate, as his 4.62 xFIP is significantly higher than his ERA, pointing to potential regression. Jobe’s projections for today are less favorable, typically expected to pitch only 4.5 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs, making him a potential target for Astros’ hitters.

Offensively, the Astros rank 25th in the league, struggling significantly for power with only 23 home runs this season. In contrast, the Tigers’ offense, though average overall, ranks 11th in the league, giving them a slight edge in run production. Given the Astros’ higher implied team total of 4.35 runs for this game, there’s reason to believe they could capitalize against Jobe and exploit his vulnerabilities, potentially making for a close contest at Minute Maid Park.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jackson Jobe – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)
  Jackson Jobe has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 15.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme groundball batters like Spencer Torkelson tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hayden Wesneski.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Detroit Tigers have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dillon Dingler, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• A.J. Blubaugh – Over/Under Strikeouts
  The Detroit Tigers have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against A.J. Blubaugh in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Christian Walker has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 11.7% seasonal rate to 20% in the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Houston Astros batters collectively rank near the cellar of MLB this year ( 4th-worst) as it relates to their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+165)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.35 Units / 58% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+11.13 Units / 34% ROI)