Live Updates for Reds vs Cardinals – 6/21/2025

Cincinnati Reds

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium on June 21, 2025, they’re looking to build on their recent success. The Cardinals dominated last night’s matchup, winning 6-1, which showcases their strong performance as they hold a record of 41-35 this season. In contrast, the Reds are sitting at 39-37 and are grappling with consistency, having lost decisively in their last game.

Both teams are fighting for positioning in the National League Central, and the stakes are high as they continue their series. The Cardinals are projected to start Sonny Gray, who has had an impressive season with a 7-2 record and a solid 3.84 ERA. Though he struggled in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs, the advanced-stat Power Rankings still slot him as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350. On the other hand, the Reds will counter with Brent Suter, whose performance has been lackluster this season, with a much lower 1-0 record and a 4.38 xFIP that suggests he may soon face adversity.

The Cardinals’ offense ranks 12th overall and shines in batting average, where they’re an impressive 3rd in MLB. However, their power numbers are lacking—ranked 22nd in home runs. Meanwhile, the Reds bring a slightly better offensive ranking at 10th, but their overall performance has been inconsistent, especially against teams with strong pitching like Gray.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, the Cardinals are currently favored with a moneyline of -190, implying a team total of 5.17 runs. Given the notable disparities in pitching matchup and recent performances, St. Louis looks poised to assert their dominance in this pivotal matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brent Suter will “start” for Cincinnati Reds today but will serve in the role of an opener and may not last more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Will Benson has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 101.5-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 93.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Sonny Gray’s high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (58.9% this year) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-205)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.253) suggests that Alec Burleson has had some very good luck this year with his .313 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  In today’s matchup, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.5% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-190)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 56 games (+5.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)
  Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.25 Units / 85% ROI)