Live Updates for Brewers vs Braves – 8/04/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Atlanta Braves

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to face the Atlanta Braves on August 4, 2025, at Truist Park. This matchup marks the first game in their series, and both teams come in with contrasting fortunes. The Brewers sit comfortably in contention with a 67-44 record, showcasing their dominance this season. Meanwhile, the Braves are struggling at 47-63, reflecting a disappointing campaign.

In their most recent outings, the Braves managed to secure a 4-2 victory, while the Brewers dominated their last game with a staggering 14-3 win. The Braves’ offense ranks just 19th in MLB, and their struggles are evident in their below-average .228 batting average, which places them 21st. On the other hand, the Brewers boast a much stronger offensive presence, ranking 3rd in batting average at .263, although they sit lower in home runs at 22nd.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start Erick Fedde, who has had a tough season with a 3-11 record and an ERA of 5.33. Fedde’s last start was uneventful, allowing 4 earned runs over 5 innings. In contrast, the Brewers will send Quinn Priester to the hill. Priester has been a bright spot for Milwaukee, sporting a 10-2 record and an impressive 3.27 ERA. His last outing, while not perfect, saw him give up only 2 earned runs despite some trouble with 8 hits and 2 walks.

With the Brewers favored at -145 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.58 runs, they look to capitalize on their strong season against a faltering Braves squad. The projections suggest that this matchup could tilt in favor of the Brewers, especially with their potent offense and Priester’s solid performance on the mound.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Considering that flyball hitters struggle against flyball pitchers, Quinn Priester (53.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  In terms of his home runs, Christian Yelich has experienced some positive variance this year. His 28.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.3.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-135)
  The 5th-weakest projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Erick Fedde’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (36.8 compared to 31.1% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Sean Murphy is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+8.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-135)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 69 games (+22.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• William Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-145)
  William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games (+6.60 Units / 104% ROI)