Live Updates for Brewers vs Braves – 8/04/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 4, 2025, this matchup features two teams on opposite ends of the performance spectrum. The Braves, with a record of 47-63, are mired in a disappointing season, while the Brewers boast a robust 67-44 mark, positioning them favorably in the playoff race.

In their previous outing, the Braves continued to struggle, dropping their last game, and will look to turn things around behind Erick Fedde, who has had a tumultuous season, highlighted by a Win/Loss record of 3-11 and an ERA of 5.33. Fedde’s advanced-stat Power Ranking sits at #217, indicating he has been one of the least effective starters in MLB this year. Projections suggest he will pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs while striking out fewer than five batters—a below-average performance.

Conversely, Quinn Priester takes the mound for the Brewers, bringing a remarkable 10-2 record and a stellar ERA of 3.27. Ranked as the #82 best starting pitcher, Priester has been effective but may be due for a correction, as his SIERA of 3.84 indicates he could be riding a wave of luck. He is projected to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs—solid numbers that should support Milwaukee’s strong offensive unit.

The Brewers’ offense ranks 13th overall and shines in batting average at #3, thanks in part to their best hitter’s impressive .464 batting average over the past week. Meanwhile, the Braves’ offense ranks a disappointing #19, particularly struggling in batting average at #21.

With oddsmakers favoring the Brewers in this matchup, Atlanta’s underdog status may present an intriguing betting opportunity given their potential to surprise at home, especially if Fedde can find some semblance of consistency on the mound. The Game Total is set at a modest 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive affair but favoring a lower-scoring outcome.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Considering that flyball hitters struggle against flyball pitchers, Quinn Priester (53.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  In terms of his home runs, Christian Yelich has experienced some positive variance this year. His 28.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.0.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Erick Fedde’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (36.8 compared to 31.1% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under Total Bases
  Over the last 14 days, Sean Murphy’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+8.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 69 games (+22.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Erick Fedde has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)