Live Stream for Royals vs Tigers Game – Thursday, April 17, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Detroit Tigers

On April 17, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are coming off losses; the Tigers fell to the Baltimore Orioles 5-1 on April 16, while the Royals lost a close one to the New York Yankees, 4-3. With the Tigers holding a record of 10-8 and the Royals languishing at 8-11, the matchup highlights a significant disparity in performance this season.

Starting for Detroit is Reese Olson, who has a respectable Power Ranking of #70 among approximately 350 pitchers, indicating he is above average despite a shaky 6.00 ERA this year. Olson’s advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky, as evidenced by his 3.95 xFIP, which is considerably lower than his ERA. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.0 hits and 1.7 walks could be a concern against a Royals lineup that, while struggling, still features some capable hitters.

Kansas City’s Michael Lorenzen, on the other hand, has been less effective, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB. His 3.71 ERA is misleading given his struggles, and he projects to allow 2.5 earned runs over 5.4 innings pitched. Lorenzen’s low strikeout rate could play into the Tigers’ hands, especially since they rank 4th in the league for strikeouts.

The Tigers’ offense has been average, ranking 12th in MLB, but they will face a Royals squad that ranks 29th in overall offensive production. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, the projections suggest a tight contest, but the Tigers appear to have the upper hand, especially given their stronger bullpen, which ranks 7th in the league compared to Kansas City’s 24th.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Michael Lorenzen will average a total of 2.2 singles in today’s matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Maikel Garcia has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last year’s 90.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Reese Olson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Reese Olson has gone to his sinker 9% more often this season (29.2%) than he did last season (20.2%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Spencer Torkelson tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Michael Lorenzen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Trey Sweeney hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 2nd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 13 games (+0.25 Units / 2% ROI)
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.45 Units / 55% ROI)