Live Stream for Rays vs Padres Game – Friday, April 25, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres host the Tampa Bay Rays on April 25, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum in a critical Interleague matchup. The Padres, currently performing well with a 17-8 record, sit firmly in the playoff hunt, while the Rays are struggling at 11-14 this season. This game marks the beginning of a three-game series, with the Padres favored after a week of solid performance from their best hitters.

On the mound, San Diego will send out Michael King, who boasts an impressive 3-0 record and a remarkable 2.57 ERA. Despite his excellent performance, advanced metrics suggest King may have been a bit fortunate, as his 3.64 xFIP indicates potential regression. The Padres’ offense, ranked 5th best in MLB, has been productive but is only 18th in home runs this season, highlighting their reliance on consistent contact rather than power.

Opposite him, the Rays will counter with Shane Baz, who comes in with a 2-0 record and a solid 3.22 ERA. Baz has shown his strikeout capability with a 33.7% strikeout rate, which might be tested against a Padres lineup that has the fewest strikeouts in MLB. This matchup is intriguing, as Baz’s strength may not play to his advantage against such a disciplined offense.

The recent form of both teams adds another layer, as the Padres have seen their best hitter perform well, hitting .292 with a .971 OPS over the past week. In contrast, the Rays’ top bat has also been effective, posting a .346 average, yet overall, their offensive metrics paint a picture of a team that needs to find more consistency at the plate.

With a game total set low at 7.0 runs and the Padres’ bullpen ranked 8th best, San Diego should feel confident heading into this contest, especially as sportsbooks list them as favorites with a moneyline of -140. The projections favor San Diego in this matchup, suggesting they could outperform their implied team total of 3.74 runs. Expect an engaging battle as both teams look to shift the momentum in their favor.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Shane Baz is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (94% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Today, Yandy Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41.1% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Michael King has gone to his slider 5.6% more often this season (28.8%) than he did last season (23.2%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 85.8-mph figure last season has dropped off to 82.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The San Diego Padres have been the 6th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in their last 11 games at home (+13.30 Units / 106% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+175/-230)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)