Live Stream for Padres vs Guardians Game – Friday, July 19, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the San Diego Padres on July 19, 2024, both teams come in with contrasting seasons. The Guardians, with a stellar 58-37 record, are enjoying a great season, while the Padres, sitting at 50-49, have been average. This interleague matchup at Progressive Field marks the first game of their series, and both teams are looking to bounce back from recent losses.

The Guardians dropped their last game to the Tampa Bay Rays by a score of 2-0 on July 14, while the Padres fell 6-3 to the Atlanta Braves. Despite these setbacks, Cleveland remains a betting favorite with a moneyline of -155, translating to an implied win probability of 59%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Guardians a 58% chance to win, aligning with their implied odds.

On the mound, Cleveland will start Tanner Bibee, who has been solid this season with a 7-4 record and a 3.77 ERA. His peripheral stats suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky, as evidenced by a 3.27 SIERA. Bibee, ranked as the 34th best starting pitcher in MLB, projects to allow only 2.3 earned runs on average today. While his strikeout potential is decent, his match against a Padres lineup that ranks 1st in least strikeouts could pose a challenge.

San Diego counters with Matt Waldron, whose 5-8 record and 3.71 ERA have been bolstered by some luck, indicated by his 4.34 xFIP. Waldron is one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, and he projects to allow 2.8 earned runs on average today. His lower strikeout rate and higher hit and walk projections may provide Cleveland’s offense, which ranks 12th best in MLB, with ample opportunities to score.

Offensively, the Guardians have been powered by Jose Ramirez, who boasts a .271 batting average, 23 home runs, and 77 RBIs this season. The Padres’ best hitter, Jurickson Profar, has been equally impressive with a .305 batting average and .870 OPS.

The Guardians also hold an edge in the bullpen, ranked 5th best in MLB compared to the Padres’ 11th ranking. Cleveland’s combination of solid pitching, a capable offense, and a strong bullpen makes them the favorites in this matchup. With a projected team total of 4.41 runs, the Guardians look poised to take the series opener against a Padres squad projected to score 3.92 runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Matt Waldron – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all SPs, Matt Waldron’s fastball spin rate of 2055 rpm is in the 10th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• David Peralta – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  As it relates to his batting average, David Peralta has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .257 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .296.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• San Diego Padres batters as a group rank 26th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 6.9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Tanner Bibee has averaged 92.7 adjusted pitches per GS this year, checking in at the 79th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (70% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.79 Units / 28% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.50 Units / 53% ROI)