Live Stream for Cubs vs Brewers Game – Monday, July 28, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Chicago Cubs on July 28, 2025, in a pivotal National League Central matchup. Both teams are locked in a tight race, each boasting a record of 62-43 as they fight for postseason positioning. The Brewers are currently ranked 8th in MLB Power Rankings for their bullpen, while the Cubs find themselves at a disappointing 28th.

In their last outing, the Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski will be looking to bounce back after a solid season, where he holds a 4-1 record and an impressive 2.45 ERA. Despite his strong numbers, projections suggest he may be due for some regression, as indicated by his 3.36 FIP. Misiorowski’s high strikeout rate of 36.0% could be challenged against a Cubs lineup that ranks 5th in the league for fewest strikeouts.

On the other side, Matthew Boyd will take the mound for the Cubs. With an 11-3 record and a stellar 2.20 ERA, he has been a bright spot for Chicago. However, his 3.78 xFIP raises some eyebrows, suggesting he might not be as invincible as his ERA indicates.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 17th overall, showcasing average talent, while the Cubs are performing at a high level, ranking 3rd in MLB. The Cubs’ best hitter has been particularly hot, posting a .400 batting average with 3 home runs over the past week, while the Brewers’ top performer is also doing well, with a .458 average in the same span.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs and both teams’ moneylines at -110, bettors should expect a closely contested battle, but the Brewers may have the edge due to their strong bullpen and home-field advantage.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  With 7 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Matthew Boyd has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Milwaukee’s #1-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.7% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Brice Turang is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be smart to expect negative regression for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 100 games (+18.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 57 of their last 98 games (+8.80 Units / 8% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+14.10 Units / 57% ROI)