
St. Louis Cardinals
@

Los Angeles Angels
+125O/U: 8.5
(-115/-105)-145
(-115/-105)-145
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Hunter Dobbins – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)Hunter Dobbins has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Ivan Herrera has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 5.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past two weeks.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- JJ Wetherholt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)JJ Wetherholt has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Reid Detmers – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)The St. Louis Cardinals have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Reid Detmers in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Josh Lowe has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oswald Peraza, Mike Trout, Zach Neto).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)Vaughn Grissom has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)
