Live Stream Details for Pirates vs Reds – Sunday, April 13, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 13, 2025, in the third game of their series. The Reds are currently struggling at 7-8 this season, with their offense ranked 29th overall in MLB, a clear indication of their below-average performance. Nevertheless, they managed to secure a victory against the Pirates yesterday, winning 5-2, which adds some momentum heading into today’s matchup.

Hunter Greene, who is projected to start for the Reds, has been pitching exceptionally well, especially given his stellar 1.31 ERA and ranking as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Greene showcased his skills in his last outing, delivering a complete game shutout and allowing no earned runs while striking out seven batters. The projections suggest he will continue this strong performance, anticipating an average of 5.8 innings pitched with 7.7 strikeouts, which could exploit the Pirates’ high-strikeout offense.

On the other side, the Pirates, currently sitting at 5-10, are having a rough season as well, sitting at the bottom of MLB in offense. Carmen Mlodzinski will get the start for Pittsburgh, but his 5.19 ERA indicates he’s struggled. Although his xFIP suggests he could experience improvement, projections show him struggling to pitch effectively against a Reds lineup that may not capitalize on his high-walk tendencies.

Betting lines favor the Reds significantly, reflected in the -195 moneyline, which paints them as the betting favorite for this matchup. With Greene on the mound and the Reds trying to build on their recent win, they are poised to take advantage of a struggling Pirates team.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Carmen Mlodzinski will “start” for Pittsburgh Pirates in today’s matchup but will serve in the role of an opener and may not last more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Bryan Reynolds has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last season’s 89.9-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Hunter Greene has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.6% less often this season (37.2%) than he did last season (44.8%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  As it relates to his home runs, Santiago Espinal has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 12.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 5.0.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.4% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-145)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 81% ROI)
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
  Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.80 Units / 68% ROI)