Los Angeles Dodgers
Washington Nationals
(-110/-110)+155
The Washington Nationals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 8, 2025, in the second game of their series at Nationals Park. The Nationals, struggling with a 4-6 record this season, are looking to build on their recent momentum after a solid 6-4 victory over the Dodgers on April 7. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, who are 9-3 and enjoying a strong start to the season, will aim to bounce back after that loss.
On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start Brad Lord, a right-handed pitcher who has yet to start a game this year, making three appearances out of the bullpen with an average ERA of 4.50. However, his xFIP of 6.85 suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate so far, as he projects to allow 1.5 earned runs over an average of 2.9 innings today. The Dodgers, on the other hand, will counter with Justin Wrobleski, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled significantly, ranking among the worst in MLB. His last outing was disastrous, yielding 10 earned runs over 5 innings, which raises concerns about his current form.
Offensively, the Nationals rank 13th in MLB, showing some power with the 7th most home runs. In contrast, the Dodgers boast the 8th best offense overall, fueled by their impressive 2nd rank in home runs. This matchup showcases the Nationals’ potential to capitalize on their power against a vulnerable Wrobleski, while the Dodgers will look to exploit any weaknesses in Lord’s inexperience.
With the Nationals as underdogs with a moneyline of +155, the projections suggest they could pull off an upset, especially if their bats can stay hot after last night’s win. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)Justin Wrobleski is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #21 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Max Muncy has strong power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (27.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Brad Lord is a pitch-to-contact type (25th percentile K%) — great news for Muncy.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Brad Lord – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Bradley Lord in the 10th percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+295/-430)Jacob Young’s footspeed has dropped off this year. His 29.71 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.13 ft/sec now.Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
- Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+155)The 5th-weakest projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Washington Nationals.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 98 games (+26.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)