Learn How to Watch the Tigers vs Blue Jays Game – July 19, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to host the Detroit Tigers on July 19, 2024, at Rogers Centre in an American League matchup. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Blue Jays holding a 44-52 record and the Tigers slightly better at 47-50. The Blue Jays find themselves in fourth place in the AL East, while the Tigers are in third place in the AL Central.

Toronto will start right-hander Chris Bassitt, who has been solid this season with an 8-7 record, a 3.52 ERA, and 101 strikeouts. While his 4.24 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate, Bassitt’s performance remains commendable. In his last outing on July 10, he pitched five innings, allowing three earned runs with six strikeouts.

Detroit counters with right-hander Jack Flaherty, who has posted a 6-5 record with a stellar 3.13 ERA and 102 strikeouts. Flaherty’s 2.50 xFIP indicates he’s been a bit unlucky, suggesting he might perform even better moving forward. His last start on July 11 was impressive, going six innings and allowing just one earned run.

Offensively, both teams have struggled this season. The Blue Jays rank 21st in team batting average and 26th in home runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a bright spot, batting .288 with 14 home runs and 55 RBIs. Similarly, the Tigers rank 24th in both team batting average and home runs, with Riley Greene leading the way, sporting a .271 average, 17 home runs, and 50 RBIs.

The bullpens for both teams have been middling, with the Blue Jays ranked 19th and the Tigers 21st in our advanced-stat Power Rankings, despite slightly better actual year-to-date performances. This could play a crucial role as the game progresses, given the projected tightness of the contest.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Blue Jays a 59% chance of winning, slightly higher than the betting market’s implied odds of 54%. With Bassitt on the mound and Guerrero Jr. leading the offensive charge, Toronto appears to have a slight edge in this closely matched game. Betting on the Blue Jays might offer some value given their projected win probability.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  In his last outing, Jack Flaherty was in good form and conceded 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Gio Urshela – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Gio Urshela has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+115)
  The 4th-weakest projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Detroit Tigers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-215/+165)
  Chris Bassitt has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Daulton Varsho’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 87.8-mph figure last year has lowered to 85.2-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+9.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 away games (+8.60 Units / 28% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Alejandro Kirk has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 49% ROI)