Learn How to Watch the Guardians vs Royals Game – March 29, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals look to bounce back from their 7-4 loss to the Cleveland Guardians on March 27, they face the challenge of leveling the series in their second matchup of the season. Currently, the Royals sit at 0-1, struggling to find their rhythm early in the season, while the Guardians have started strong at 1-0, showcasing their potential.

On the mound, Kansas City is set to start Seth Lugo, who ranks as the 106th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, indicating he is an average performer. Lugo’s projections for today’s game suggest he will pitch around 5.3 innings while allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs. However, his tendency to allow 5.3 hits and 1.7 walks could be problematic against a Guardians lineup that, while averaging in the middle of the pack overall, has shown flashes of power with a 12th ranking in home runs.

Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams, who has a slightly better ranking at 85th among MLB starters. Despite a shaky last outing where he allowed 3 earned runs in just 2 innings, projections suggest he will pitch around 4.8 innings today, also allowing 2.4 earned runs. Both pitchers have their weaknesses, but Lugo’s struggles with hits and walks could tip the scales in favor of the Guardians.

In terms of offensive capabilities, the Royals rank 14th in MLB, indicating an average talent level, but their 20th ranking in home runs shows a lack of power that could hinder their chances. The Guardians, while ranking 17th overall, have a solid 6th ranking in stolen bases, which could exploit the Royals’ weaknesses on the base paths.

With the Game Total set at an average 8.5 runs, the betting markets reflect a close contest, with the Royals slightly favored at -115. However, given the Guardians’ strong start and the Royals’ struggles, this matchup could lean in favor of Cleveland as they aim to capitalize on their early momentum.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Gavin Williams to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Seth Lugo in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Maikel Garcia is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Michael Massey pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.2% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 90 of their last 162 games (+14.45 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 76 games (+14.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+115/-145)
  Gavin Williams has hit the Earned Runs Under in 6 of his last 9 away games (+3.00 Units / 25% ROI)