Cleveland Guardians
Philadelphia Phillies
(-120/+100)-155
The Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians clash in an intriguing interleague matchup on July 27, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. Both teams are having stellar seasons, with the Phillies boasting a 64-39 record and the Guardians close behind at 62-41. This game marks the second in their series, adding an extra layer of competition as both teams vie for playoff positioning.
The Phillies have been on a roll, and their offense has been a significant factor, ranking 5th in MLB. They are also 3rd in team batting average and 6th in home runs, showcasing their ability to hit for both power and average. Nick Castellanos has been particularly hot, hitting .304 with a .913 OPS over the last week. This potent lineup will face Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled this season with a 5.32 ERA. However, Carrasco’s 4.14 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and might perform better going forward.
On the mound for the Phillies is Tyler Phillips, who has been a pleasant surprise with a 2.81 ERA and a 2-0 record in his two starts. However, his 3.51 xERA indicates he might not sustain this level of performance. Phillips projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs with 3.4 strikeouts, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.
The Guardians’ offense, while decent, ranks 13th in MLB. They are 15th in both batting average and home runs, but their strength lies in speed, ranking 8th in stolen bases. Austin Hedges has been their standout hitter recently, boasting a .400 average and .900 OPS over the last week. The Guardians will need their bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, to hold down the fort if Carrasco falters early.
The Phillies’ bullpen is no slouch either, ranked 3rd, which could make the later innings a battle of elite relief arms. With a high game total of 9.0 runs, bettors can expect some fireworks. The Phillies are favored with a -155 moneyline, implying a 59% chance of victory, bolstered by their strong offense and solid bullpen.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)Carlos Carrasco’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this year (90.9 mph) below where it was last year (92 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- David Fry – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)David Fry has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph dropping to 81.7-mph over the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- David Fry – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)David Fry pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Tyler Phillips – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)Tyler Phillips has averaged 92.3 adjusted pitches per start this year, checking in at the 79th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)When it comes to his batting average, Trea Turner has had some very good luck this year. His .338 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .273.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-155)The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 41 games at home (+15.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+135)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 91 games (+8.27 Units / 7% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)Daniel Schneemann has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 33% ROI)