Learn How to Watch the Brewers vs Phillies Game – May 31, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 31, 2025, they’re looking to bounce back from a tough loss to the Brewers the previous day, where they fell 6-2. Currently, the Phillies sit at 36-21, firmly in the playoff race, while the Brewers are at 30-28, trying to stay competitive in a challenging National League Central.

Starting for the Phillies is Jesus Luzardo, a left-handed pitcher who has established himself as a force this season. Luzardo boasts an impressive 5-0 record with a stellar 2.15 ERA, ranking him as the 30th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. However, his 2.99 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate, suggesting a potential dip in performance. Luzardo projects to average 5.6 innings today, which is considered average, but his projections for allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.7 batters indicate room for improvement.

On the other hand, the Brewers will counter with Chad Patrick, whose 2-4 record and 2.97 ERA look solid on the surface but mask underlying struggles, evidenced by his 4.32 xFIP. His projections are less favorable, with an expected performance of just 4.6 innings and allowing 2.5 earned runs.

The Phillies offense ranks 5th in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, while the Brewers offense struggles at 25th. Given the disparity in offensive power and Luzardo’s strong season, the projections favor the Phillies, who have an implied team total of 4.54 runs compared to the Brewers’ 3.46. If the Phillies can capitalize on their offensive strengths against a potentially overmatched Patrick, they should have a strong chance to even the series.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Chad Patrick’s 87-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 3rd percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Sal Frelick has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• As a team, Milwaukee Brewers hitters have struggled as far as hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating worst in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Given that flyball hitters have a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Jesus Luzardo and his 34.3% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in this game squaring off against 4 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Bryson Stott’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.7-mph mark last year has fallen to 86.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-175)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+7.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 51 games (+7.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.05 Units / 14% ROI)