Learn from the Match Preview: Red Sox vs Rays Game Forecast – September 19, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on September 19, 2025, the match-up holds significant implications in the American League East. Currently, the Rays are sitting at 75-78, having an average season, while the Red Sox boast a stronger record at 83-70, positioning them as an above-average team. With both teams vying for momentum, the stakes are high, especially after the Rays recently secured a convincing 4-0 victory over the Red Sox.

On the mound, the Rays will turn to Drew Rasmussen, who has been solid this season with a Win/Loss record of 10-5 and an excellent ERA of 2.74. Despite ranking as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Rasmussen’s peripherals suggest he might not maintain this effectiveness going forward. He projects to pitch an average of 4.9 innings, allowing around 2.1 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 4.6 hits and walk 1.1 batters could be problematic against a potent Red Sox lineup.

Garrett Crochet, on the other hand, will take the mound for Boston. With a stellar Win/Loss record of 16-5 and an impressive ERA of 2.63, Crochet ranks as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB. His ability to strike out batters at a rate of 7.5 per game greatly enhances his effectiveness, though he too has struggled with walks, averaging 1.3.

Both teams possess strong bullpens, with the Rays ranked 2nd and the Red Sox 4th in MLB. This factor could prove crucial in a game where the total is set low at 7.0 runs. The projections lean slightly in favor of the Red Sox, but with the Rays’ recent performance and home-field advantage, this contest promises to be tightly contested.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Garrett Crochet has utilized his slider 5.9% more often this season (15.6%) than he did last season (9.7%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Nathaniel Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (94% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Drew Rasmussen’s 2483-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 90th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Josh Lowe’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 89.4-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 82.4-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 84 of their last 150 games (+8.50 Units / 5% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-140)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 89 games (+13.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+180/-235)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.05 Units / 27% ROI)