Injury Report for Red Sox vs Braves – Friday, May 30th, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Atlanta Braves

On May 30, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Boston Red Sox at Truist Park in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Braves enter this game with a record of 26-29, while the Red Sox are slightly behind at 27-31. Both teams have struggled this season, falling short of expectations. However, the Braves are coming off a solid 9-3 victory over the Chicago Cubs just the day before, which could provide a boost in morale.

Projected starters Grant Holmes and Lucas Giolito both carry below-average reputations this season, but Holmes has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in his last outing, where he delivered a complete game shutout against the Miami Marlins on May 24, allowing just one earned run over seven innings. With a 3-3 record and a respectable 3.68 ERA, Holmes is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings today, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs. His performance metrics suggest he may have benefitted from some luck, as indicated by his higher 4.20 xERA.

Conversely, Giolito, who has a 1-1 record with a 5.27 ERA, has had a tough time this season, but the projections indicate he might be due for a turnaround. His last outing saw him throw seven innings without allowing any earned runs, hinting at potential improvement. However, he is projected to struggle today, with expected averages of 3.3 earned runs and 2.2 walks.

Offensively, the Braves rank 15th in MLB, while the Red Sox boast the 6th-best offense. The Braves have a strong hitter contributing with a .280 batting average and 9 home runs this season, but the Red Sox counter with a hitter boasting a .287 average and 12 home runs, along with a significant edge in RBIs.

With the Braves favored at -165 and an implied team total of 4.99 runs, they will look to build on their recent success, while the Red Sox will aim to capitalize on their offensive prowess to secure a win. The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a potentially high-scoring affair.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Lucas Giolito is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Carlos Narvaez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Carlos Narvaez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 104.7-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 9th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Grant Holmes must realize this, because he has gone to his secondary offerings a lot this year: 59.9% of the time, checking in at the 80th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Boston (#2-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+8.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 away games (+6.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 55% ROI)