Injury Report for Angels vs Astros – Thursday, September 19th, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels are set to clash at Minute Maid Park on September 19, 2024, in an American League West matchup. The Astros, with an 82-70 record, are having an above-average season and are still in the hunt for a postseason berth. In contrast, the Angels have struggled with a 62-90 record, marking a disappointing season for them.

On the mound, the Astros will start Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher who ranks as the 73rd best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Kikuchi’s season has been a mixed bag with a 9-9 record and a 4.29 ERA, but his 3.25 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky. His projected performance for this game includes 5.4 innings pitched, 6.2 strikeouts, and 2.1 earned runs allowed, indicating a solid outing.

The Angels will counter with lefty Jose Suarez, whose season has been less favorable. With a 1-2 record and a troubling 6.80 ERA, Suarez ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB. Despite his struggles, his 4.41 xFIP suggests he might have some positive regression in store. However, projections indicate a challenging game ahead, with expectations of 4.8 innings pitched, 3.2 earned runs, and just 3.5 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Astros hold a significant advantage. Their lineup ranks 9th best overall and 3rd in team batting average, while the Angels lag behind at 27th overall and 28th in batting average. Houston’s Jason Heyward has been on a tear, boasting a .368 batting average and 1.084 OPS over the last week.

With a potent offense and a pitching edge, the Astros are a massive betting favorite, with a moneyline of -275 and an implied win probability of 71%. The projections align with these odds, forecasting the Astros to score 5.59 runs on average, compared to the Angels’ 3.70 runs. This sets the stage for Houston to capitalize on their superior form and continue their playoff push.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Suarez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Over his previous 3 games started, Jose Suarez has experienced a big drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2333 rpm over the whole season to 2271 rpm recently.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Brandon Drury has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .166 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .222 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+110)
  Yusei Kikuchi has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 3.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Victor Caratini has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 6.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jon Singleton hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 8th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 151 games (+19.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 81% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+14.10 Units / 25% ROI)