Injuries Update for Phillies vs Nationals – September 28, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Washington Nationals

As the Philadelphia Phillies gear up to face the Washington Nationals on September 28, 2024, the stakes are high for these National League East rivals. The Phillies, boasting an impressive 94-66 record, are already experiencing a stellar season, bolstered by their potent 4th-ranked offense. Meanwhile, the Nationals, with a 70-90 record, are out of contention for the division crown and are looking to build momentum for the future. Interestingly, the Nationals claimed a decisive 9-1 victory in the first game of this series, an outcome that might have surprised many.

On the mound, the Phillies will rely on Zack Wheeler, one of the elite pitchers in MLB, ranked 5th overall in the Power Rankings. Despite a fantastic 2.56 ERA this season, Wheeler’s peripheral stats suggest he might have been benefiting from some luck. However, his dominance remains undeniable, as evidenced by his 16-7 win-loss record. Wheeler faces a Nationals lineup that ranks 23rd overall but is surprisingly aggressive on the base paths, leading MLB in stolen bases.

The Nationals counter with MacKenzie Gore, whose season has been a mix of ups and downs. With a 4.04 ERA and a 10-12 record, Gore ranks 123rd among starting pitchers, indicating below-average performance. However, the Nationals are buoyed by their recent win and will hope Gore can replicate his recent solid outing where he pitched seven innings with only one earned run allowed.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees the Phillies as favorites with a 63% chance of victory. The Phillies’ offense, with Kyle Schwarber as a standout performer, poses a significant threat to the Nationals’ underwhelming bullpen, ranked 28th. Despite the odds, the Nationals have shown they can surprise, especially with Juan Yepez heating up at the plate, hitting .444 over the last week. As these two teams clash again at Nationals Park, baseball fans can expect another exciting chapter in this divisional encounter.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Zack Wheeler has used his change-up 6.8% more often this year (7.2%) than he did last season (0.4%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  When it comes to his home runs, Bryson Stott has been very fortunate this year. His 11.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 8.6.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  MacKenzie Gore’s 95.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1-mph rise from last year’s 94.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Dylan Crews is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Joey Gallo, Jose Tena).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 43 games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 63 games (+16.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.85 Units / 29% ROI)