Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers
(-120/+100)+120
On September 17, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Philadelphia Phillies in the second game of their series at American Family Field. As both teams are in contention for playoff spots, this matchup holds significant importance. The Brewers sit at 87-63, while the Phillies boast a slightly better record at 90-60, indicating a tight race as they look to secure favorable standings.
In their last outing, the Brewers delivered an impressive performance, highlighted by a complete game shutout from their ace, which bolstered their confidence heading into this matchup. However, they will face a challenging task against Zack Wheeler, who has been dominant this season, ranking as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB with a stellar 2.60 ERA.
The Brewers will counter with Frankie Montas, whose average season has seen him post a 4.49 ERA and a 7-10 record. Despite being projected to allow an average of 2.6 earned runs and pitch 5.4 innings, Montas’s ability to limit damage will be crucial. His recent struggles have led to a below-average projection in hits allowed, which could be problematic against the 4th best offense in MLB that the Phillies field.
While the Brewers rank 8th in overall offense, they have shown vulnerability in generating power, sitting at 16th in home runs. This could be a deciding factor against Wheeler, who is expected to deliver a solid outing but has seen a high xFIP of 3.41, suggesting he may not maintain his elite performance level moving forward.
With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Brewers enter as underdogs with a moneyline of +125 and an implied team total of just 3.46 runs, making this a critical game for both squads as they vie for a playoff position.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 74 of their last 142 games (+11.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 74 games (+15.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+170/-225)Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 21 away games (+8.45 Units / 40% ROI)