Injuries Update for Mets vs Braves – June 17, 2025

New York Mets

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Atlanta Braves

On June 17, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the New York Mets at Truist Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League East matchup. Both teams are coming off tough losses in their last games, with the Braves falling 10-1 to the Miami Marlins on June 15 and the Mets suffering a 9-0 defeat to the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves, currently sitting at 31-39, have struggled this season, while the Mets boast a solid 45-27 record and are positioned as a competitive force in the league.

The starting pitchers present an interesting contrast: Spencer Schwellenbach for the Braves and David Peterson for the Mets. Schwellenbach, ranked as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, has an impressive ERA of 3.11. He is coming off a remarkable complete game performance on June 11, where he allowed only 2 earned runs and struck out 9 batters. In contrast, Peterson has also been effective, with a strong 2.49 ERA, but his projections suggest he might face some regression moving forward.

Offensively, the Braves have an average ranking, sitting at 16th in MLB, while the Mets’ offense shines with a 5th best ranking. The Braves’ struggles are evident in their 26th rank for team stolen bases, indicating difficulty in generating runs. Conversely, the Mets have demonstrated power with a 7th rank in home runs.

Betting markets favor the Braves with a moneyline of -140, suggesting they have a strong chance to win. With Schwellenbach’s elite pitching against a Mets offense that may struggle to capitalize, this game could present an opportunity for the Braves to bounce back and build momentum despite their recent misfortunes.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Considering that flyball batters perform worse against flyball pitchers, David Peterson (51.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Juan Soto has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.9-mph to 98.9-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Spencer Schwellenbach’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (44.9 vs. 35.9% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Bats such as Ozzie Albies with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like David Peterson who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  In today’s matchup, Ozzie Albies is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.8% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+8.65 Units / 35% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.95 Units / 24% ROI)