How to Watch the Rangers vs Phillies Game - Saturday March 28, 2026

-105O/U: 7.5
(+110/-130)-115

Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jacob deGrom to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)
Joc Pederson has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .275 rate is quite a bit lower than his .311 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Texas Rangers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
Given the 1.37 disparity between Aaron Nola’s 6.01 ERA and his 4.64 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball since the start of last season and should perform better in future games.
Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under Total Bases
Kyle Schwarber’s 21% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) ranks in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Philadelphia’s 89.8-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in Major League Baseball: #4 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 76 games at home (+18.75 Units / 14% ROI)
Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 53 away games (+14.10 Units / 21% ROI)

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