How to Watch the Orioles vs Rays Game – Friday August 09, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

@

Tampa Bay Rays

The Baltimore Orioles visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays for the first game of their series on August 9, 2024. The Orioles, currently in a strong position with a record of 68-48, are enjoying a great season and sit comfortably in playoff contention. In contrast, the Rays have struggled with a record of 58-56, marking an average season and keeping them in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.

In their last games, the Rays emerged victorious against the St. Louis Cardinals with a score of 6-4, showcasing a glimpse of their potential. Meanwhile, the Orioles fell to the Toronto Blue Jays by a narrow margin of 7-6, which could weigh on their momentum heading into this matchup.

Starting on the mound for the Rays is Zack Littell, who has had a mixed year with a 5-7 record and an ERA of 4.06. His performance has been average, and he projects to allow 2.6 earned runs over 5.4 innings today. However, Littell’s tendency to give up fly balls could be problematic, facing an Orioles lineup that ranks 1st in the league with 157 home runs this season.

The Orioles counter with Zach Eflin, who has a slightly better Win/Loss record of 7-7 and an ERA of 4.05. Eflin’s 3.39 xERA suggests he has been a bit unlucky, indicating he might improve moving forward. He is projected to allow 2.2 earned runs over 5.8 innings, giving Baltimore a solid chance to capitalize on Littell’s fly ball tendencies.

THE BAT X projects the Orioles for an average of 4.51 runs tonight, while the Rays are only expected to score 3.71 runs, making them underdogs despite their home-field advantage. As the two teams face off, Baltimore’s potent offense should provide them the upper hand in this contest.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-190/+145)
  Recording 17.5 outs per game per started this year on average, Zach Eflin ranks in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Zack Littell’s change-up utilization has spiked by 5.2% from last year to this one (18% to 23.2%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Ben Rortvedt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Ben Rortvedt’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 87.1-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 77.1-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-most strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 25.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+17.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 116 games (+13.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Jackson Holliday has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.00 Units / 87% ROI)