How to Watch Pirates vs Mets – Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 13, 2025, the stakes are clear: the Mets are looking to continue their strong run, currently sitting at 27-15, while the Pirates struggle at 14-28. In their previous matchup, the Mets emerged victorious, highlighting their potent offense that ranks as the 4th best in MLB. With a solid lineup, the Mets will look to exploit the struggles of Pittsburgh’s pitching staff.

Kodai Senga takes the mound for the Mets, boasting a 4-2 record and an impressive 1.16 ERA this season, making him one of the more effective starters in the league. He projects to strike out an average of 7.1 batters today, which bodes well against a Pirates lineup that ranks among the league’s worst in offensive output, sitting at 29th overall. While Senga’s xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate thus far, his ability to limit earned runs—projected at just 2.1 today—remains a significant advantage.

On the other side, Mitch Keller will pitch for Pittsburgh. Despite starting 8 games this year, he has struggled to find consistency, with a 1-4 record and a 4.40 ERA. Keller’s low strikeout rate (17.6 K%) could be a recipe for disaster against a Mets offense that has the 6th lowest strikeout rate in the league. The projections indicate Keller will allow an average of 3.2 earned runs, further complicating the Pirates’ chances.

Considering the overall matchup and the Mets’ superior offensive and pitching metrics, they are positioned as heavy favorites, reflected in the betting lines. With the Mets’ recent success and the Pirates’ ongoing struggles, this game shapes up to be a challenging outing for Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average hurler, Mitch Keller has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 5.5 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Kodai Senga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Compared to their .311 overall projected rate, the .300 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Pittsburgh Pirates projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kodai Senga must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot this year: 60.3% of the time, ranking in the 86th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Juan Soto has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 14.1% seasonal rate to 34.2% in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (-115)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 33 games (+8.84 Units / 23% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.55 Units / 41% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+420/-660)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+11.35 Units / 113% ROI)