How to Watch Brewers vs Nationals – Friday, August 01, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 1, 2025, both teams come off disappointing losses in their last outings. The Nationals fell to the Miami Marlins 9-1, while the Brewers suffered a 10-3 defeat at the hands of the Chicago Cubs. This matchup has significance as it marks the opening game of their series, and while the Nationals are struggling with a 44-64 record, the Brewers sit in a much more favorable position at 64-44.

On the mound, the Nationals will send out Mitchell Parker, who has had a challenging season with a 7-10 record and a 4.91 ERA. Parker ranks as the 228th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, highlighting his struggles. However, he did show promise in his last start on July 26, where he pitched six innings, allowing just two earned runs. The projections suggest he may pitch around 5.2 innings today, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, but his 5.45 xERA indicates he could be due for a rough outing.

Conversely, the Brewers will counter with Jose Quintana, who has been more effective this season with a 7-4 record and a solid 3.50 ERA. Though Quintana has also been considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB, he brings experience and has been reliable in his last start, where he also allowed two earned runs over five innings. The projections for Quintana are slightly less favorable, predicting he’ll allow 2.7 earned runs while facing a Nationals offense ranked 23rd in MLB.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the Brewers are favored with an implied team total of 4.62 runs, reflecting their stronger season and the Nationals’ current struggles. Bettors should keep an eye on how each pitcher performs, especially given the contrasting forms of both teams.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Brandon Lockridge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Brandon Lockridge is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be wise to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Mitchell Parker will post an average of 3.8 strikeouts today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Brady House – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Brady House’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 88.6-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 75.7-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+10.32 Units / 11% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 55 games (+21.05 Units / 28% ROI)
• Andruw Monasterio – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Andruw Monasterio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 away games (+6.10 Units / 72% ROI)