Guardians vs Mets Injury Report – Monday, August 04, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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New York Mets

The New York Mets and the Cleveland Guardians are set to square off in the first game of their interleague series at Citi Field on August 4, 2025. With the Mets currently sitting at 63-49, they find themselves in a strong position while the Guardians hover around .500 at 56-55. The Mets are expected to start Sean Manaea, who boasts a solid ERA of 2.08 but comes in with a Power Rankings position of #126, suggesting some underlying luck in his performance. Conversely, Slade Cecconi, projected to pitch for the Guardians, has struggled more this season, ranking as one of the worst pitchers in MLB despite a respectable ERA of 3.77.

In their last game, the Mets’ offense, ranked 12th in MLB, has shown promise even though they sit 22nd in batting average. Over the last week, their best hitter has maintained a blistering .389 batting average with a 1.213 OPS, indicating they are capable of stringing together solid performances.

On the other hand, the Guardians have faced challenges offensively, ranking 27th overall and dead last in batting average, which could spell trouble against a capable pitcher like Manaea. The projections indicate a favorable outcome for the Mets, with a high implied team total of 4.81 runs.

Given the Guardians’ offensive struggles and the Mets’ favorable pitching matchup, they hold strong betting appeal as a significant favorite with a current moneyline of -175. Slade Cecconi’s tendency to allow 5.3 hits on average further accentuates the Mets’ chances of capitalizing offensively, making this matchup one worth watching for bettors looking to capitalize on the team’s current form.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Slade Cecconi’s change-up percentage has dropped by 8.9% from last year to this one (15.4% to 6.5%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Carlos Santana has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph dropping to 80.2-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Projected catcher Austin Hedges grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Sean Manaea’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.8 mph this season (90.5 mph) below where it was last year (92.3 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Brett Baty is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-175)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 56 games at home (+10.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 away games (+8.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+12.85 Units / 32% ROI)