Cleveland Guardians
New York Mets
(-110/-110)-195
On August 4, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Cleveland Guardians at Citi Field for the first game of their interleague series. The Mets enter this matchup with a solid record of 63-49, showcasing a strong season, while the Guardians sit at 56-55, indicating an average performance thus far. Notably, the Mets are coming off a disappointing 12-4 loss, which may fuel their motivation to rebound in front of their home crowd.
Starting for the Mets will be Sean Manaea, who has had an excellent ERA of 2.08 this season, despite being ranked as the 124th best starting pitcher in MLB. His last outing on July 29 was impressive, as he pitched 5 innings, allowing just 1 earned run. However, projections indicate he may be due for some regression, as his xFIP of 2.90 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate. Manaea is expected to average 5.6 innings pitched, allowing around 2.5 earned runs, which could put him in a favorable position against the Guardians’ struggling offense.
On the mound for Cleveland will be Slade Cecconi, who has had a mixed season with a 3.77 ERA but is projected to allow a concerning 3.1 earned runs today. Cecconi’s recent performance includes a 7-inning outing where he gave up 3 earned runs, and his overall metrics hint at potential difficulties against a Mets offense currently ranked 12th in MLB. With the Guardians’ offense ranking 27th and struggling with a .227 batting average, they may find it tough to capitalize on any opportunities.
The Mets are favorites in this matchup, with a moneyline of -175, suggesting a high implied team total of 4.53 runs. Conversely, the Guardians’ low implied team total of 3.47 runs reflects their challenges at the plate. As the Mets aim to bounce back from their last defeat, they will look to exploit the Guardians’ weaknesses and take the early lead in this series.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Slade Cecconi’s change-up percentage has dropped by 8.9% from last year to this one (15.4% to 6.5%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Carlos Santana has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph dropping to 82.4-mph in the past two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Projected catcher Austin Hedges grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
New York Mets Insights
- Sean Manaea – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Sean Manaea’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.8 mph this season (90.5 mph) below where it was last year (92.3 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Despite posting a .367 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Juan Soto has been unlucky given the .040 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .407.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-195)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 56 games at home (+10.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 away games (+8.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Angel Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)Angel Martinez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+18.40 Units / 204% ROI)