Get Tickets Information for Rockies vs Reds – 7/11/2025

Colorado Rockies

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Colorado Rockies at Great American Ball Park on July 11, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. The Reds are currently 48-46, sitting mid-pack in the National League, while the Rockies are struggling immensely at 21-72, showcasing one of the worst records in MLB this season.

Both teams come off contrasting performances in their last games. The Reds secured a solid victory, shutting out the opposition with a 6-0 win, while the Rockies faced a tough loss, falling 10-2. This disparity highlights the Reds’ current form, which is much stronger than the Rockies’, who continue to falter.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start Chase Burns, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the 48th best in MLB according to advanced stats. Despite a rough Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 8.10, Burns’s xFIP of 3.52 indicates he has been unlucky this season. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out an impressive 6.6 batters. Burns faces a Rockies lineup that ranks 2nd in the league for strikeouts, which could play to his advantage.

Opposing him is German Marquez, also a right-hander, who has had a tough season with a 3-10 record and a 5.84 ERA. Marquez’s low strikeout rate of 15.3% could hinder his ability to navigate the Reds’ offense, which ranks 15th overall. Projections suggest he will struggle against a lineup that has been more productive than his own team’s, which sits at 27th in MLB.

With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs and the Reds favored heavily with a moneyline of -245, it seems they have a strong chance to capitalize on their current momentum against a Rockies team that is still searching for answers.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• German Marquez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. German Marquez has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.1% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Mickey Moniak tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Chase Burns.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Mickey Moniak pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Chase Burns’s 97.6-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 99th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Austin Hays has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 6.8% rate last year to 14.7% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+8.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+490/-850)
  Spencer Steer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)