Colorado Rockies
Tampa Bay Rays
(+100/-120)-185
The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Colorado Rockies at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 29, 2025, in the second game of their series. Following a close 3-2 victory yesterday, the Rays are looking to build momentum as they currently sit at 1-0 this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies are off to a rough start with a 0-1 record after their own narrow defeat, also by a score of 3-2.
On the mound for the Rays is Zack Littell, projected to deliver an average outing of 5.5 innings while allowing about 2.2 earned runs. Despite his ranking as the 131st best starting pitcher in MLB, he could perform well against a Rockies offense that ranks 18th in the league. Littell’s last start featured 7 strikeouts over 5 innings, which indicates he can be effective despite being viewed as below average overall.
Countering him, Antonio Senzatela takes the hill for the Rockies, carrying a reputation as one of the league’s less effective pitchers. In his last outing, he struggled significantly, giving up 6 earned runs over just 4 innings. His average projected performance suggests he may allow 2.8 earned runs and 5.5 hits, which does not bode well against the Rays’ offense, despite their low rankings.
While the Rays’ offense sits at a disappointing 29th in runs scored, they are still a solid betting favorite in this matchup with a moneyline of -200. The projections favor the Rays with a high implied team total of 4.64 runs. As the Rays aim to leverage their strong bullpen, ranked 8th in MLB, they have a significant edge against a Rockies team that has struggled in their own right.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Antonio Senzatela in the 5th percentile among all starting pitchers in MLB.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 10th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Ryan McMahon has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Danny Jansen is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 84 of their last 143 games (+21.01 Units / 13% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+160)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 away games (+4.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kameron Misner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-150)Kameron Misner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.30 Units / 115% ROI)