Get Tickets Information for Rangers vs Pirates – 6/21/2025

Texas Rangers

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On June 21, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Texas Rangers at PNC Park in an Interleague matchup. The Pirates are struggling this season with a record of 30-47, while the Rangers sit at a slightly better 37-39. In their last encounter, the Rangers edged out the Pirates in a closely contested game, highlighting the competitive nature of this series.

Mitch Keller is projected to take the mound for Pittsburgh, and his season has been a rollercoaster. With a 1-9 record and an ERA of 4.08, Keller has been unlucky, as evidenced by his 3.29 FIP, which suggests he could improve. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings today, allowing an average of 3.3 earned runs. However, his below-average strikeout rate of 4.8 per game and high projected hits allowed (6.5) raise concerns.

On the other hand, Texas will counter with Kumar Rocker, who has had a rough start to his rookie season, posting a 2-4 record and a dismal ERA of 7.31. Despite this, his projections indicate a potential for improvement, with an expected FIP of 3.70. Rocker is expected to pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, but his high hit rate (4.9) and walk rate (1.3) could be problematic.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 29th in MLB for batting average and home runs, while their stolen base prowess ranks them 5th, showcasing their speed on the bases. In contrast, the Rangers’ offense is slightly better, ranking 28th in overall performance and 19th in home runs.

With both teams struggling, the Pirates’ advantage lies in their bullpen, ranked 18th, compared to the Rangers’ 27th. Betting markets have set the moneyline at -110 for both teams, indicating a close matchup. The projections suggest that the Pirates may have a better chance to win than their current performance indicates.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Kumar Rocker has been unlucky in regards to his ERA since the start of last season; his 6.30 figure is a good deal higher than his 4.05 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Bats such as Marcus Semien with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mitch Keller who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Kyle Higashioka pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (-110)
  Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-270/+200)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 62 games (+20.80 Units / 30% ROI)
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 69% ROI)