Get Tickets Information for Guardians vs Royals – 7/26/2025

Cleveland Guardians logo

Cleveland Guardians

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Kansas City Royals logo

Kansas City Royals

+115O/U: 8
(-110/-110)
-140

As the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians prepare for their matchup on July 26, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack in the American League Central. The Royals, sitting at 50-53, and the Guardians, at 51-51, are both having average seasons. Yesterday, the Royals fell to the Guardians in the first game of this double-header, adding a bit of urgency to their efforts in the second game.

The pitching matchup features Kris Bubic for the Royals, who is having a strong season with an impressive 2.38 ERA and a 8-6 record. Bubic ranks as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his effectiveness on the mound. However, advanced metrics suggest he might be due for a regression, as his 3.39 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this year. On the other hand, Tanner Bibee takes the hill for the Guardians. With a 4.27 ERA and a 6-9 record, he ranks 56th among starting pitchers. Bibee’s 3.58 xERA suggests he has been a bit unlucky this season, hinting at potential improvement.

Offensively, both teams have struggled. The Royals rank 26th in MLB offensive production and 28th in home runs, while the Guardians are even lower at 28th overall. The Guardians do find some solace in their stolen base ranking, sitting 10th in MLB, but their overall batting average is a dismal 29th.

With the Royals projected to score around 4.19 runs and the Guardians at 3.81 runs, this game could be tightly contested. The Royals’ moneyline is set at -130, reflecting a close contest, especially considering the Guardians’ recent strong performance against them.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

  • Angel Martinez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-265)
    Angel Martinez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
    Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
  • Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
    According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best out of all MLB teams.
    Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

  • Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
    Kyle Isbel’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 86.9-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 80.3-mph over the past 14 days.
    Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
  • Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
    Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.1% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
    Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

  • Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
    The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 45 games at home (+25.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
    The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
    Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.20 Units / 37% ROI)