Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Rockies vs D-Backs – Sunday, May 24, 2026

Colorado Rockies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Jose Quintana’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (51.1% compared to 44.4% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brett Sullivan – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brett Sullivan stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .293 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .321 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all starters, Ryne Nelson’s fastball velocity of 95.6 mph ranks in the 76th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Despite posting a .362 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ildemaro Vargas has experienced some positive variance given the .087 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .275.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks batters collectively rank among the worst in the majors this year ( 7th-worst) as it relates to their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.90 Units / 42% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jose Fernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Jose Fernandez has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 32% ROI)