Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Rockies vs D-Backs – Sunday, May 24, 2026

Colorado Rockies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Jose Quintana’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (51.1% compared to 44.4% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under Total Bases
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake McCarthy can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .296 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .321 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Out of all starters, Ryne Nelson’s fastball velocity of 95.6 mph ranks in the 76th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under Total Bases
  Despite posting a .362 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ildemaro Vargas has experienced some positive variance given the .087 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .275.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks batters collectively rank among the worst in the majors this year ( 7th-worst) as it relates to their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.