Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
(-110/-110)-135
The Boston Red Sox will host the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park on May 24, 2025, for the second game of a double-header. The Red Sox are currently 27-26, sitting in the middle of the pack in the American League East, while the Orioles languish at 16-34, struggling to find their footing this season. In their previous matchup, the Red Sox dominated the Orioles with a resounding 19-5 victory, showcasing their potent offense.
On the mound, Lucas Giolito is projected to start for the Red Sox. Despite his ranking as the 167th best starting pitcher in MLB, Giolito’s 7.08 ERA indicates a rough season. However, there’s hope for improvement as his xFIP of 4.21 suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky. The Red Sox offense, ranked 5th in MLB, has been a bright spot, capable of putting runs on the board against even the toughest pitchers.
Opposing Giolito will be Trevor Rogers, who has faced challenges this season and is considered one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Rogers projects to pitch around 4.9 innings while allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, which could be problematic against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 6th in batting average and 7th in home runs.
With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, bettors might find value in the Red Sox’s implied team total of 4.76 runs. Given their recent offensive explosion and the struggles of the Orioles, the Red Sox appear poised to capitalize and secure another win in this pivotal matchup.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)The Boston Red Sox have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Rogers in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Maverick Handley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Extreme groundball hitters like Maverick Handley tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Heston Kjerstad – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Heston Kjerstad has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-135)The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 2nd-best out of all the teams today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Kristian Campbell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)Kristian Campbell has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-most strikeout-prone lineup today is the Boston Red Sox with a 25.4% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 47 games (+8.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- Dylan Carlson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+130/-170)Dylan Carlson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.65 Units / 63% ROI)