Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Guardians vs Yankees – Thursday, June 04, 2026

Cleveland Guardians

@

New York Yankees

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Slade Cecconi has utilized his cut-fastball 23.3% more often this season (26%) than he did last year (2.7%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Steven Kwan is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen projects as the 8th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Carlos Rodon has compiled a 12.2% Swinging Strike% since the start of last season, checking in at the 79th percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  There has been a decrease in Jose Caballero’s average exit velocity this season, from 86.1 mph last year to 83.3 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+3.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+140)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 away games (+8.75 Units / 88% ROI)
• Angel Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-145)
  Angel Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.05 Units / 31% ROI)