Get the Reds vs Padres Injury Report – Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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San Diego Padres

On September 10, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Cincinnati Reds at Petco Park in a crucial National League matchup. The Padres, currently holding a record of 79-66, are having an above-average season and sit in a strong position as they look to secure a place in the postseason. Conversely, the Reds are at 73-72, battling for relevance in a tight race. In their last encounter, the Padres fell to the Reds by a score of 4-2, marking a tough loss that they’ll aim to avenge in this rubber match of the series.

The Padres are projected to send Nick Pivetta to the mound, who is having an excellent season with a 2.85 ERA and a solid 13-5 record. Pivetta’s last start saw him allow just 2 earned runs over 6 innings, showcasing his ability to limit damage. However, his 3.81 xFIP indicates he may have benefited from some good fortune. He projects to average 5.6 innings today while allowing 2.2 earned runs, which bodes well against a Reds offense that ranks 16th in MLB.

On the other side, Cincinnati will counter with Andrew Abbott, who has also had a commendable year with a 2.88 ERA. However, his recent outing was less than stellar, giving up 5 earned runs over 5 innings. Abbott’s projections suggest he’ll struggle with earned runs and hits today, which could be a significant factor against a Padres lineup that, while ranking 17th overall in offense, boasts a 2nd-best batting average in the league.

Given the Padres’ offensive capabilities and Pivetta’s strong showing, they enter this matchup favored to win, with a moneyline of -145 and an average projected total of 4.02 runs. Betting enthusiasts might find value in backing San Diego, particularly after their recent defeat, as they seek to turn the tide and capitalize on their pitching advantage against Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 89.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 80.1-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Nick Pivetta’s curveball usage has jumped by 5.2% from last year to this one (16.5% to 21.7%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Despite posting a .382 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ramon Laureano has been very fortunate given the .049 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .333.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 105 games (+11.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 82 of their last 140 games (+26.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+200/-265)
  Matt McLain has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.25 Units / 73% ROI)